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2011 rebound? Prices low, investors back, Sorry, being in Orlando I disagree

March 5th, 2011 No comments


Plenty of signs point to the housing market finally bottoming out and moving into rebound mode this year, experts say in a recent article in The Wall Street Journal.

Investors, who were burned when the housing bubble burst in 2006, are back on the market, betting on a rebound and snagging up houses and condos in all-cash deals.

What’s more, housing is at the most affordable it has been in decades nationwide — when home prices and average incomes are taken into account, according to analysts at Moody’s Analytics. The cost of a house is equal to about 19 months of income for an average family, which is at the lowest level in 35 years. (Prices generally average nearly two years of pay.)

“Pricing is down so much in some markets that when you analyze renting versus owning it makes much more sense to own,” Michael Larson, a real-estate analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., told The Wall Street Journal.

Housing prices likely will bottom in 2011, says Scott Simon, a managing director at the money-management firm Pimco in Newport Beach, Calif. While he expects housing prices to possibly drop another 5 percent, he says that is a small amount when some markets prices have dropped by half or more since housing prices started falling in 2006.

Source: “Why 2011 may be the end of the housing crash,” The Wall Street Journal (Feb. 27, 2011)

The above post is from the Wall Street Journal, nationally they may be close. However, here in Orlando, I’ve got to say no, not yet. Perhaps in 2013. We’ll see.
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Jerry LaRose is an Orlando Area Residential Real Estate Expert, who can assist you with the purchase and/or sale of Real Estate in Orlando, Windermere, Winter Garden, Kissimmee, St. Cloud, East Orlando, Longwood, Altamonte Springs, Maitland, Winter Park, Oviedo, Apopka, Lake Mary, Clermont, Ocoee Florida or any place in the country. Jerry has created a team of professionals throughout Orlando and the country to ensure that you enjoy a smooth transition to your new area.
Please visit:
Avoid Foreclosure / Short Sale Help http://OrlandoShortSaleExpert.com, or http://ShortSellMyOrlandoHome.com
Our Website http://JerryLaRose.com or www.JerrySellsOrlando.com, or http://OrlandoRealEstateVoice.com ,
If you’re a Buyer looking for Great Deals – http://InvestmentPropertyDealsOrlando.com
Please give me a call if you have questions about the Orlando and Central Florida real estate market.
P.S. If you are listing your home as a short sale in Orange, Seminole, Polk, Lake or Osceola County Florida and Orlando, East Orlando, St. Cloud, Davenport, Clermont, Longwood, Windermere, Winter Garden, Kissimmee, Winter Park, Altamonte Springs, Maitland, Apopka, Lake Mary, Oviedo or Ocoee Florida make sure you hire an agent who knows how to do short sales and has the experience to get the job done. We are doing successful short sale packages. The short sale process is complicated and we can help simplify it.
Call us at 407-580-7011 or email at  mailto:jerry@JerryLaRose.com to find out more about Orange County Short Sales and Orlando Area Short Sales.

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US Housing Market Will Struggle in 2011: Poll

November 23rd, 2010 No comments

The U.S. housing market will stagnate next year as a steady stream of foreclosures and nagging joblessness sap the demand needed to mop up an excess of homes on the market, according to a Reuters poll.

While a housing recovery will be sustained, home prices, which have plunged by about a third since their 2006 peak, will barely rise next year. Medians from the poll showed a mere 1.1 percent rise in 2010 and 1.0 percent in 2011.

Expectations for next year haven’t budged from the August poll, and won’t even keep up with the expected 1.6 percent rise in the consumer price index next year.

Expectations for a stable year will provide little joy for the 11 million Americans who now owe their banks more than their home is worth, preventing them from refinancing their loan or buying a new house without coming up with more cash.

“Housing activity has likely bottomed, but the recovery will be slow and long-developing,” David Berson, chief economist at California-based mortgage insurer PMI Group, said.
Donald Ratajczak, an Atlanta-based economist consulting for Morgan Keegan, said the gain in prices needed to return from where they are now to 2006 levels — some 35 percent — is a decade or more away.

But only one-fifth of economists who answered the question said house prices would not return to those lofty levels.
It is clear, however, that the housing market is still under pressure. Housing starts slumped to their lowest in 1-1/2 years in October, mainly due to sharply reduced building of multi-unit homes.
But Fairly Valued

The poll showed U.S. homes are currently fairly valued, the same as in the last poll, assigning a score of 5 on a 10-point scale where 1 is extremely undervalued. But medians from the poll suggest they have 5 percent still to fall from here.
Negative housing sentiment has grown with the U.S. unemployment rate lingering at 9.6 percent.
A soft jobs market has traditionally been the main driver of defaults, and took only a temporary back seat to the faulty underwriting and excessive credit that first tripped up the $11 trillion mortgage market.

“The simple fact is that prices will not be able to rise when poor economic conditions continue to undermine demand and when foreclosures will continue to boost supply,” said Paul Dales, U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.
Meanwhile, signs that foreclosures are running at a record pace are keeping homeowners nervous, unwilling to buy an asset that could quickly depreciate.
Government efforts to address underwater mortgages have also fallen flat, in part because banks are fearful they would have to accept another round of write-downs.
“Growing foreclosure supply is weighing on a market already rife with slack demand, and the only clearing mechanism the market has is price,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia, who was amongst the most bearish of the poll respondents.
More foreclosures are likely on the way as the proportion of national delinquencies rose in the last quarter for the first time this year, to 2.7 percent of current mortgage balances from 2.6 percent in the prior period, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Faults in the foreclosure process plaguing banks will initially slow the pace of homes put on the market, preventing an immediate price downturn.
But the time it takes for Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and others to fix their errors is delaying the inevitable and actually increasing losses to investors who hold the loans, analysts said.
After one or two months of delayed foreclosures, the country is likely headed for a record 1.2 million bank repossessions this year, said Rick Sharga, a vice president at RealtyTrac, a foreclosure listings and data firm in California.

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Jerry LaRose is an Orlando Area Residential Real Estate Expert, who can assist you with the purchase and/or sale of Real Estate in Orlando, Windermere, Winter Garden, Kissimmee, St. Cloud, East Orlando, Longwood, Altamonte Springs, Maitland, Winter Park, Oviedo, Apopka, Lake Mary, Clermont, Ocoee Florida or any place in the country. Jerry has created a team of professionals throughout Orlando and the country to ensure that you enjoy a smooth transition to your new area.
Please visit:
Avoid Foreclosure / Short Sale Help http://OrlandoShortSaleExpert.com, or http://ShortSellMyOrlandoHome.com
Our Website http://JerryLaRose.com or www.JerrySellsOrlando.com, or http://OrlandoRealEstateVoice.com ,
If you’re a Buyer looking for Great Deals – http://InvestmentPropertyDealsOrlando.com
Please give me a call if you have questions about the Orlando and Central Florida real estate market.
P.S. If you are listing your home as a short sale in Orange, Seminole, Polk, Lake or Osceola County Florida and Orlando, East Orlando, St. Cloud, Davenport, Clermont, Longwood, Windermere, Winter Garden, Kissimmee, Winter Park, Altamonte Springs, Maitland, Apopka, Lake Mary, Oviedo or Ocoee Florida make sure you hire an agent who knows how to do short sales and has the experience to get the job done. We are doing successful short sale packages. The short sale process is complicated and we can help simplify it.
Call us at 407-580-7011 or email at jerry@JerryLaRose.com to find out more about Orange County Short Sales and Orlando Area Short Sales.

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